Category: Blog

Casino

10 most popular mistakes in the SRA

Information on how to start an arbitration is on the Internet and its volume is increasing every day. After reading a couple of clever books and watching videos, beginners rush into an arbitration battle and … In most cases, they leak the first budget, are disappointed, write “affectionate” compliments to the partner.

We have prepared the 10 most popular mistakes in earning on SRA, which were made by almost every arbitrator. And which you will not make after reading our article!


Wow, what a cool case! I’ll do just as well.

Play in casino

This is error number one, which is repeated by 99% of newcomers. You dug up some interesting information about a super mega successful case with a crazy ROI. Of course I want to repeat that experience. After all, others did it, and I can do it too! But someone else’s experience does not guarantee good results. Some will work, but others won’t.

Tip: Cases, no matter how cool and successful they are, are not detailed guidelines for action. They will help to understand the scheme of work with a particular offshore or source, but do not take them as a step-by-step instruction.

I’ll take it all at once

Almost every novice arbitrator has his hands full – you want to take as many partner products as possible. But we recommend to bet on QUALITY, not QUALITY. Start small and you’ll benefit. Choose 1-3 reliable products and focus your attention and efforts on them.

Tip! If you spend more time on one product, it will be much easier to convert your efforts into sales. At the same time, you can always take extra work. The main thing is to pay enough attention and effort to your advertising campaigns.

Wrong choice of partner

Black and red

Of course you want a quick turnaround – unscrew the campaign, withdraw the money and invest again to scale up your advertising. But thus novices choose SRA network with a long holding, so quality of the traffic is considered minimum 2 weeks, and money is deduced in a month, and even later.

Another mistake – to choose a network where it is not possible to create an agent’s office, but want to advertise through targeted advertising in social networks.

Tip! Give preference to partners, where:

  • the holding is 3-10 days;
  • minimum withdrawal from 1000 rubles;
  • OFFERS may be moderated in social networks.

Test? Why waste time!

It is clear that one doesn’t want to spend time on testing and creating for every targett, but it is impossible to determine the effective ligament without it. Tests help you to find a targeted promo, which is guaranteed to be profiteering.

What should I do?

  • Identify your target audience;
  • Use effective tools – Storiteling, clickbacks, benefit descriptions;
  • Create about 10 ads;
  • Test them;
  • Leave the most successful ones, the rest to be scrapped.

Now analyze these successful ads – find the anchors that hook your CA. Detail the promotions by dividing them into separate elements:

  • image,
  • title,
  • a description,
  • STAT button.

Now come up with 3 options for each part and start testing again. The result will be 2-3 most successful promotions. And to choose the best of the best:

  • Run a split-test;
  • Define a promo with maximum KPI;
  • Improve everything you can and can’t, and run it!

Tip: Change one element during one test. If you change several at once, then you won’t understand what exactly caused the increase in conversions.

I don’t need a UTM tag

That’s right, why bother) And then it’s not clear where the lid came from? What kind of promo doesn’t make a profit at all? Which one is better to invest more in?

Tip: Do not wave UTM tags, learn how to work with them and insert them into each advertising campaign, and then the analytics will be simple and effective.

I am on my own

This is a common mistake not only among beginners, but also among maternal arbitrators. The motto “let’s do it all not worse” works against you, because the income of support agents depends directly on your financial success. Support agents are as interested in your professional work as you are.

Tip: One in the arbitration field is not a warrior. Get the support of agents, who will advise you on the bundle if necessary, throw special offers, raise the bet.

The more complicated the source of traffic, the better

Dice

Beginners in many ways complicate their lives by choosing the wrong traffic source. They often choose banner ads instead of doing teaser. Or promote credit offers through teaser instead of raising promo with targeted VKontakte advertising.

Tip: If we talk about gaming offers, VK targeting is much easier and more effective than teaser networks. Beginners are much easier to master My Target than mobile advertising exchanges. The advantage is that you will not have “zero” clicks and there is no need to catch sites that pour bots and non-convertible traffic.

I’m fine as it is, I don’t need another partner

Well, first of all, good is not perfect yet. And secondly, it is a big mistake to limit yourself to one partner in the harsh world of arbitration.

Each partner network specializes in a specific area, has its own specific conditions. All this must be taken into account and used in their own interests. If you choose the right partner – it is guaranteed success. And if you choose several at once – it is a success multiplied by the number of SRA.

Tip: Always have a few “spare” options, as most companies allow to withdraw money only 1-2 times a month.

Complicated offers are not for me

Fear of difficulties at the beginning of the journey – quite natural and understandable. Beginner arbitrators try to choose the simplest offers, requiring a minimum of knowledge and experience in work. But in the end they will face a killer competition, a huge variety of advertising campaigns in one subject.

Tip: Choose more “exclusive” operas, i.e. those that are less common. So, with low competition, you have a better chance of success.

If I don’t see a profit in the first few days, I’ll be divorced

All the arbitrators with experience have suffered fairies in the past. Not all advertising campaigns begin to work in the plus side and make a profit. Even professionals who have been working on the subject of arbitration for more than a year do not always get a profit. This is the prose of the life of arbitration, with which you have to accept.

Failure is no reason to give up. Learn, gain experience, follow the news, communicate on thematic forums, subscribe to the news feed of partner programs. In this way you will quickly get involved, make useful acquaintances, rework the experience of colleagues.

And another +5 free tips for beginners.

  1. Work with counters and retargeting codes. And how else will you gather a warm audience? With pixels/meters, you can catch up with potential customers with your special offers for a very long time.
  2. More creative solutions. Traditional advertising everywhere and everywhere, it no longer works as desired by arbitrators and marketers. That’s why there has to be a lot of creativity. Really a lot!
  3. Save your patience. Don’t change the parameters on the day the promo is launched. Wait 24 hours to get complete statistics and make necessary changes to the advertising campaign based on the facts.
  4. Correctly use SEO technology. Many people refuse them at all, and for nothing. Current key queries, SEO-optimized ads and pages, links from reputable resources – and your resource has every chance to break into the top of search results.
  5. Use web analytics more actively. You can catch up with the sea of traffic, but you do not know where the lids come from, applications, registrations, which campaigns it is better to give up now, and in what it is worth to throw money. Without web analytics any arbitrator like a blind kitten!

So that you do not learn from your mistakes, re-read others and do not repeat them in your arbitrage experience. Success!

Wheel red black casino gambling games

How to win at a casino, or what roulette can teach those who do not like gambling – Part 2

Myth 4: The casino is twisting the roulette to make you lose.

Quite the contrary, the casino tries to make the roulette work as well as possible, i.e. the numbers fall out in a completely random order. This slot machine can be twisted, we put any probability of winning – the player still will not check. Roulette – a completely different matter. It is enough a small skewed table and the casino will start losing money. Players will quickly notice if numbers from one roulette sector start to fall out more often. And that’s it, the roulette will be unprofitable for the owner. That’s why the tables are not only perfectly level, but also a special counter controls the randomness of numbers dropping out, signaling in case of suspicious deviations from the theory of probability.

A history of zero. I happened to meet a roulette curve once. Of course, in a serious casino, it’s almost impossible. It was the only time in my life when I bet on a specific number (never do that, see below!) and … won 🙂

Play recreation heart cross board game ace

Myth 5: Casinos are expensive, they lose a lot.

They lose at the casino for exactly as long as they want to lose. For example, at the Monte Carlo casino, the minimum bet is 5 euros. This means that you can play for 100 euros all night, getting positive emotions. Or you can lose this hundred in 3 minutes without getting a single gram of pleasure. Details are below.

How to win roulette good mood with minimal expense

Now the fun part. I’ll tell you about the author’s system of roulette fun with minimal expenses (and you can find out what else is profitable :)).

First, never bet on a specific number! You bet on “14”? It’s less than 3% chance that “14” is the right number to bet on. So, instead of getting 36 chips instead of one placed on the table, you will probably just lose it.

Second, don’t bet on black and red. It’s the easiest and most attractive option for beginners. With a probability close to 50/50 you will either lose your chip or win 2 instead of 1 placed on the table. It’s better than betting on a specific number, naively believing that Fortune is sleeping and seeing how to pay attention to you. But it’s still not wise enough. That’s because:

a) for bets on black and red casinos, usually sets a minimum bet every 5 times higher than other betting options (so you lose money faster, not pulling a cat by the tail);

b) to be happy or upset with a 50-50 chance we don’t want to be, we want to be more happy than upset 🙂

So what do you want to bet on?

Put 5 chips at once, closing 5 blocks of 6 digits (called “six-line” in English). At roulette, there is a betting option where one chip closes 6 consecutive numbers. It looks like this – point “F” (in the picture so closed numbers from 31 to 36):

By betting on 6 numbers, if you win, you get 6 instead of one chip placed. The probability of winning is 1/6 (more precisely, 6/37 due to the presence of “0”, but for simplicity we will consider that “one sixth”). However, we don’t want to win on average 1 time for every 6 bets. That is why we do not close 1 block of 6 numbers, but 5 at once. In other words, we only leave 6 unclosed numbers plus “0”. Which 6 numbers to leave unclosed – at your discretion, practice your intuition. The main thing is that now we will win with 5/6 probability (or rather, 30/37) and lose with 1/6 probability (or, taking into account zero, 7/37). That is, we are 5 times more likely to win than to lose. Yes, miracles don’t happen, if we win our purse with only one chip, and if one of “not ours” 7 numbers falls out, we will lose 5 chips. But the key point here is that we will win 5 times more than lose!

Bet betting business casino

The point is that we are happy to win 1 chip not 5 times less than we regret the loss of 5. This is subjective, difficult to prove, but in practice it is. Winning more often, but less is a more positive pastime than winning a lot and rarely (or even never). In fact, if you bet on one number, you will win on average 37 times. But you have to, depressingly lose the chips 36 times and wait for this rare moment to win?! Especially since losses can easily be more than 36 in a row, and to “wait” for them, waiting to win, you need more chips … Do you need it, spend money on a bunch of chips and then watch your fiasco again and again? That’s not what you came to the casino for!

To play five-six tactics, you need 20 chips of start-up capital. I mean, 100 euros in Monte Carlo is enough. There’s a 0.13% chance you’ll never win. So you have to make a very big mistake in front of Fortune to get her to make such a cruel joke on you. The casino’s legal income of 2.7% wasn’t canceled for any betting approach. But if you put your 100 euros entirely on one number, or, better yet, on the “red and black”, about such a moderate casino income, you will learn only from this article, but not from practice :).

The described theory of “positive casino attendance” has been tested by me many times in practice and I can confirm that:

a) the joy of winning 1 chip may be less than the bitterness of losing 5, but certainly not 5 times. Therefore, winning 5 times more often than losing, you spend the evening positively, feeling in your own experience the basic rules of probability theory, which are not emphasized in the university.

b) 20 chips are enough for the evening. I haven’t been to the casino often, but I never left without a single chip. As a rule, with what I came and went, but sometimes on the plus side. This is explained by the fact that I didn’t play often and not all night for the flight, so these legal 2.7% just couldn’t be felt. Little pranks Fortune forgives 😉

Any other betting options?

Yes, there are. According to the same theory of enjoying the game, you can put 2 chips, closing 2 lines of 12 numbers (that close the line of 12 numbers is a chip “B” in the figure above). With a probability of 2 out of 3 you will increase your budget by 1 chip, otherwise you will lose 2 chips. In this case you will need even less “seed money”. If you have only 12 chips, then you will need to lose them all without winning – it is necessary to try very hard, because the probability of this is only 1.7%. But for me personally, the probability of losing every 2 wins does not seem to be a positive enough rest, so the option “five sixths” is better.

Or you can bring my theory to the point of absurdity – take 35 chips and close 35 numbers at once, leaving only 2 numbers for evil rock. With 95% probability (i.e. in 35 cases out of 37) you will return 35 chips and additionally get 1 prize. But in 5% of cases you will say goodbye to all 35 chips, which is very, very offensive. This is more of an approach for those who choose between suicide and “get rich”. Takes a man 35 million in debt, puts them on 35 numbers and with a probability of 95 out of 100 becomes a millionaire. Well, in 5 cases out of 100, the creditors will implement the first option… We don’t need that kind of roulette.

Instead of imprisonment…

game play recreation card casino

Roulette is a theory of probability in its purest form, which can be seen and touched. Roulette is the most honest way to take money away from the public, it is much more honest than contributions to major repairs or funded pensions.

The above approach is not only applicable at roulette. For example, movements in financial markets sometimes do not differ much from random. It is not for nothing that FOREX is often compared with casinos. If you rely not only on your knowledge and intuition, but also on the theory of probability, then you can let not so much to earn, but at least not to lose a lot 🙂

Wheel red black casino gambling games

How to win at a casino, or what roulette can teach those who do not like gambling – Part 1

Foreword

I’m not a casino owner or a gambler. I haven’t received a penny for this article from the gaming business, and I even risk causing their dissatisfaction by teaching you how to play roulette correctly. And yes, I didn’t lie in the headline, and I will really tell you the theory on the verge of math and psychology that will allow you to win at the casino. Even though it won’t always be money, you’re in a good mood!

Who loses at the casino?

Play building red money black stadiumThe loser at the casino is the one who comes to make money. If you go to the casino for this purpose, you already lose! In the casino they go to have a fun time in luxury and excitement. They go to work for the money. So before going to the casino, allocate the amount that you do not feel sorry for. And how to save it – my task, for which this article was written.

Second point. Never play slot machines (one-armed bandits). There is no more talentless and stupid way to plant money than to throw coins in an iron box. However, according to the American Gaming Association at the Las Vegas casino, 74% of gamblers prefer slot machines and only 5% prefer roulette.

What is the fundamental difference between a slot machine and roulette? In the first case, you play with a black box, which decides whether to give you a win or not. In the case of roulette, your opponent is a probability theory with objective laws, which you can observe with your own eyes. The opaque operation of slot machines allows you to lay in them any “appetite”. Therefore, in different countries, the minimum return on winnings slot machines are set forcibly at the state level. As a rule, the minimum value is limited to 90%. That is, if you play for a long time in such a machine you will find that he “eats” only every tenth put in it a ruble. It is said that in Las Vegas, at the initiative of individual casinos, this bar rises to almost 95% (impossible to check, you can only believe in the kindness of sharks gambling business). But more often than not the percentage fluctuates (at least, should) around 90%. Compare this with roulette, where the “appetite” of the casino is not 10%, and only 2.7%.

roulette: basics

Hand play place usaThere are numbers from 0 to 36 scattered around the roulette. This is European roulette. American roulette has another 38th number, “00”. Be afraid of American roulette, you have twice as much chance of losing it as you do of losing it to European roulette! That means you should prefer to go to Monte Carlo or Macau (the Chinese gambling zone, which has long shut the legendary Las Vegas behind the belt). Why is American roulette twice as voracious as its European sister? To do that, you have to understand how you win at roulette. Its size is determined not by the desire of the casino owner, but only by the theory of probability. And that’s how it works.

Let’s drop the unfortunate 0 and 00, pretending we have 36 numbers. The probability that a particular number will randomly fall out is 1 of 36 (or 1/36). This means that you have only 1 chance out of 36 to guess which number will fall (i.e. 2.78% probability (= 1/36 * 100%)). But if you guess, you’ll get from the casino 36 times more than the amount you put.

All 36 numbers are equally painted black and red (18 black and 18 red; only zero green). You can choose whether to bet on “red” or “black”. If you bet on “red” and guess, the casino will give you back twice as much as you bet. Why 2 times and not 3 or 4 times? Because the probability of guessing by betting on “red” or “black” is 18/36 or 1/2. And that’s why your reward will be twice as big as the bet (i.e. equal to the denominator of the fraction).

According to the rules of roulette, you can put a chip not only on a specific number or black-red, but also close several numbers with one chip. In particular, 12 numbers, 6, 4, 2 (below in the article there is a picture showing how it is done on the game table). And in all cases, if you guess, the winnings will be inversely proportional to the probability of guessing. So, if you close 12 numbers, you will get 3 times more chips than you have bet (12/36 = 1/3); put a chip on 4 numbers at once, you will get 9 chips (4/36 = 1/9) and so on, the principle is clear – less probability of winning, more chips you get.

If there were only 36 numbers on roulette (by the way, the sum of all numbers from 1 to 36 is 666, because of which roulette is called the “damn wheel”), we could play casino for hours, staying with our money. As shown above, winning would accurately balance out the probability of losing. But the casino is not a charity, so it wants to pluck a piece of your pie. To do this, we’ve added a 37th “0” (European roulette) to the 36th. And the greedy Americans also added a “00” to the 38th. The rules for calculating the winnings remained the same, as if we had 36 numbers. It turns out that the 37th (and 38th) number – this is the income of the casino. Now the probability that your number will fall – 1/37 (or 1/38 in the American version), you will still get 36 times more than you bet. It turns out that the average casino receives 1 ruble of each 37 rubles, which you put on roulette. Casino income – 2.7% (1/37*100%); and from American roulette – 5.3% (2/38).

How much does the casino earn on me?

red casino gamblingYes, you only pay 2.7% when you play roulette. But that’s so little, wouldn’t you say?! The supermarket’s food price can be 20% and 30%! Then why the golden walls, marble floors and free drinks in the casino and not the supermarket? It’s as simple as that. The shop covers the costs of delivery, storage, etc. And the casino takes your bill and, figuratively speaking, cuts off the 37th part of it without leaving the gaming table. Money flows by the river, and the small stream that leaves this river in favor of the casino turns into a very small lake with goldfish in the phase of the owner of a gambling establishment. So why am I writing this article, if 2.7% must be guaranteed to give to the institution, the game is obviously a loser? Because there are many ways to lose. You can lose all the money in one moment, or you can spend the whole evening rejoicing at your victories, getting sharp, but mostly positive emotions. How – read below.

Casino myths and magic schemes to win at roulette.

Myth 1: Beginners are lucky.

Of course, beginners are no more lucky than regulars. It’s just that when the old man wins, they don’t pay much attention to it. And when a beginner wins (especially when he puts his chip on one number and gets a stack of 36 chips in return), he is louder than happy, on his success others emphasize. The casino is a good way to attract newcomers, and the old-timers of the institution have a good explanation why the newcomer won and not him 🙂

FICTION 2: If 10 (20, 30 … ) times fell “red”, then now it is sure to fall “black”!

This is a delusion solely from the field of psychology. Indeed, the probability that 10 times in a row “red” will fall out – very low, less than 0.1%. Therefore, when we see that “red” fell out 9 times, we have no doubt that the 10th time “black” will fall out for sure. Actually the key point here is this: “red” has fallen out 9 times, so now the probability of “red” and “black” is still 50/50 (or, if you drop deeper, the probability of falling out 10 times “red” is exactly the same as 9 times “red” and then – black). I haven’t been to the casinos often, but I’ve caught these long series of the same color, just like those who believe they can’t go on forever. Yes, they can’t go on forever, but it’s a 50-50 chance that the “single-color” series will end in another move.

Myth 3: The casino cannot be beaten.

No, I wasn’t wrong. The fact that a casino cannot be guaranteed to win (in theory) is as much a myth as it is possible (practically). According to roulette rules, you can theoretically win. But to prevent this from happening in practice, the casino has introduced an additional rule – the maximum bet. Otherwise, the rich could have multiplied their fortunes without getting up from the table. To do this, you need to constantly bet on the red (or black): first 1 chip; losing – 2 chips, again losing – 4, then 8, 16, 32 and so on until you win. You will win only 1 chip, but you will not be able to lose endlessly; as I wrote above, the probability that one color will fall 10 times in a row – less than a tenth. Smartly, it’s called a system of martingale, but usually this idea of itself comes to all players. And so if it comes to Bill Gates, who has enough money to “survive” the black bar almost any length, the casino is not fed. To do this, the casino has two tricks: they limit the maximum bet that can be made at the table, and increase the minimum bet for the easiest option “red and black”. That is, who wants to wait for the light strip in life will have to start with a larger amount, and the chance to finish the “race” without waiting for the right color, is not so ghostly.